New paper – When inferring to a conspiracy might be the best explanation

I have a new post basically ready to go, but that will have to wait until tomorrow, for today is a celebration of my new paper in Social Epistemology, ‘When inferring to a conspiracy might be the best explanation’.

Abstract: Conspiracy theories are typically thought to be examples of irrational beliefs, and thus unlikely to be warranted. However, recent work in Philosophy has challenged the claim that belief in conspiracy theories is irrational, showing that in a range of cases belief in conspiracy theories is warranted. However, it is still often said that conspiracy theories are unlikely relative to non-conspiratorial explanations which account for the same phenomena. However, such arguments turn out to rest upon how we define what gets counted both as a ‘conspiracy’ and a ‘conspiracy theory’, and such arguments rest upon shaky assumptions. It turns out that is not clear that conspiracy theories are prima facie unlikely, and so the claim such theories do not typically appear in our accounts of the best explanations for particular kinds of events needs to be re-evaluated.

Available here [paywalled] (or via your library’s journal subscription).

David Icke is coming to Auckland

Readers of this blog will be well aware of David Icke, possibly the most well-known purveyor of these things called ‘conspiracy theories’ in the world. Local readers (i.e. those of you in Aotearoa (New Zealand) might well be interested to know that David is coming to Auckland on August 6th of this year.

I bet the organisers are glad we didn't change the flag, eh.

Tickets are available here. You can expect to find me in the audience. Whatever you might think of Icke’s views, he’s a very engaging speaker, and given it’s a marathon 10 hour session, works out to be good value for money.

Also, Josh and I will be interviewing David Icke on the podcast come the end of May, so expect a certain amount of chatter about Icke and his views over the coming months, in prep for August 6th!

See you there!

Before and without the police – On that Spinoff story

You’ve probably read the Spinoff’s piece of investigative journalism concerning prominent Auckland DJ, Andrew Tidball, and allegations of his inappropriate behaviour towards a number of women. If you haven’t read it, I would recommend going and doing so (although the contents are disturbing). I am not going to rehash its contents here; all I need say to motivate this piece is that serious allegations of misconduct have been made about Andrew Tidball, and they are of such a nature that a police investigation would be warranted. Rather, I’m interested in a variety of different responses I’ve seen to it online. This is by no means an exhaustive or in-depth discussion of the matter, and I’d love to hear your thoughts on all of this, once you’ve read this piece.

This is a matter for the police/courts!

A common refrain when stories like this break is to say ‘We should say nothing and leave it to the police’, or claim ‘This should have gone to the police, and not been a news story.’ The latter response doesn’t interest me as much as the first, because often the latter response is more a reaction to the messenger than the message. So, for example, John Drinnan in the New Zealand Herald seems aghast the Spinoff ran the story, even though as some have pointed out on social media, he didn’t seem at all phased when the New Zealand Herald ran similar stories of their own.

So what of the claim ‘Say nothing and let the police handle the matter!’ Well, what I here, when saying ‘This is a matter for the courts/police, surely?’ is not just that certain segments of the population don’t trust institutions like the Police or the Courts, but, historically, we didn’t even need them to deal with such problems in our polities. ((Well, I guess that’s actually quite contentious. You could and probably should argue in response that we created certain statutes of criminal law, et cetera, precisely because existing societal norms did not deal with these issues adequately. But the general lesson remains.))

The Police – at least in the form we know them – are a modern invention. Prior to that – in the West at least – we relied upon a raft of measures, from wardens, sheriffs, local magistrates and the like. We also relied upon word-of-mouth, discussing issues either openly or privately, in order to inform others and, yes, shame offenders.

The media has always played a role in bringing forward these stories, in order to warn and educate the populace. Now, maybe we aren’t used to them doing that anymore (for a variety of reasons), but trial by media is a) not a new thing and b) not necessarily a bad one.

The issue is societal norms; we do not celebrate victims of sexual predation and abuse coming forward. Instead, we typically re-victimise them. Institutions like the police and the courts tend to be (although not always) somewhat behind the times. Which makes sense; as society changes, those changes should – eventually – be reflected in the laws, rules, and regulations of the various institutions which purport to govern and protect us. What we are seeing – especially with regard to social media – are elements of our community going ‘This behaviour isn’t good enough, things are not changing fast enough, and so we are going to speak out’. Stories like this are evidence that societal norms are changing, and that if public institutions don’t start to reflect those changes by taking such charges seriously, then more and more of these stories will be prosecuted through the court of public opinion.

This story will prejudice the eventual trial!

Then there’s the other elephant in the room: ‘Stories like this prejudice the eventual trial.’ Yet we know cases like this are hardly ever reported, rarely investigated, and seldom successfully prosecuted through the courts (should it even get that far). The idea we should not discuss cases like this because it makes it hard on the perpetuators to get a fair trial is part-and-parcel of the reason why things like this happen. We don’t talk about it, which makes people think it doesn’t happen very often, which means people think claims like these are extraordinary (and thus search for other reasons why such a claim would have been made), et cetera.

Studies have been made about the effect of news reporting on trial outcomes, and it’s not at all clear that heavy media coverage of a story affects the outcome. We tend to read articles like this and assume ‘Now we know everything’, and that’s a feature of good journalism; a decent news story tells you the salient facts, and strings them together as a story. However, jurors get a lot more information inside the court room, and the idea that reading a news story will trump that onslaught of data is not an assumption we should hold tightly to. It’s true that a story might give someone the initial idea ‘That guy’s deffo guilty!’, but then again, societal attitudes towards cases like this will also prejudice people. ‘Well, they came on to him…’ ‘She was wearing that dress…’ These kinds of assumptions, which are often entirely unexamined, likely have an equal or greater effect that some news story someone may or may not have read.

Also, one story up on the Spinoff (no matter how highly you think of the story or the outlet), is hardly heavy coverage. The chances a random juror will have read it is relatively low. The chances most of the twelve have read it; pretty unlikely. Sorry, writers of the article!

But it’s just ‘she said; he said’…

Speech is evidence. Oh, it’s not ‘hard evidence’ like DNA or CCTV footage, but it’s still evidence. It still has to be weighed up and assessed like other kinds of evidence, and, strangely enough, it’s still the most common form of evidence around.

Why ‘strangely enough’? Well, because there’s a weird fetishisation with ‘hard evidence’, which stories like these apparently do not provide. ‘Oh, anyone can say that! Where’s the proof?’ is a common refrain, but that ignores the fact that speech is evidence. We rely on what we are told for an awful lot of the things we know. When were you born? What your name is. How many siblings (if any) you have. All of these are things you are told. A birth certificate can be easily faked, after all. Indeed, many people don’t even have copies of their birth certificates, and may never have even seen one.

Yet when it comes to allegations like that in the Spinoff article, people seem to suddenly want hard, physical evidence. On one hand this is understandable; we think of claims like that in the article as being ‘extraordinary’ or ‘very serious’, and so we want compelling evidence. But the nature of alleged activities like those in the Spinoff article don’t necessarily produce such hard evidence. Unless we go around recording everything we do, we’re reliant on cases where someone predates on another on the claims of the alleged victims and the responses to those claims by the accused. Reducing that down to ‘she said, but he said’ makes it seem like we’re dealing with a case which can only be settled with ‘evidence’, rather than admitting we’ve got a whole lot of evidence, and now the issue is how we weigh it. ((Part of the problem here is naive empiricism; the idea that evidence decides one way or the other, rather than supports certain hypotheses, given particular assumptions.)) Weighing evidence is hard, whether or not it’s ‘hard’ evidence.

Visiting Infowars yet again

Conspiracy Round-up – 11-04-16

All the news these days is Mossack Fonseca-related; Panama Papers this! Panama Papers that! Who am I to buck such a trend? We even devoted an episode of the podcast to it.

A decent primer on what this whole Mossack Fenseca/Panama Papers thing is actually about.

Vice provides a Conspiracy Theorists Guide to the Panama Papers (although I’d say it’s more a conspiracist’s guide, myself). It covers some of the more wacky aspects of various cover-up theories behind the recent leaks; it’s a hit job on Putin; everyone works for the CIA; George Soros!; etc. It’s a great reminder that almost every major news story can be refactored to fit an existing narrative.

On Putin and Mossack Fenseca, the cellist who seemingly holds the key to the Russian oligarchy’s fortunes.

To my mind, the most interesting part of the investigation into Mossack Fenseca is that near 400 journalists, working for 80 different organisations, managed to keep their investigation secret. It’s a conspiracy by journalists, with the aim of not letting their mark know what was happened, and it seems to have worked out. This story covers some of the lead-up to the Panama Papers investigation, and it makes for interesting reading.

Especially if you take this story into account; did you know that activities of Mossack Fenseca had been revealed to the world eighteen months earlier?

That aforementioned story is interesting to me because it speaks to a curious problem or fascination with modern data journalism; the Vice story told the same kind of tale as the Panama Papers, but it didn’t have a treasure trove of data. It’s a CSI-effect, but in journalistic terms.

Now, the thing about claiming your business is all above board is framing the message. If this story is true, then someone at Mossack Fenseca either thinks their business is crooked, or they watch James Bond films and sympathise with the villains. It’s one thing to name shell companies after Bond films; it’s another to name them after villains in the franchise.

(In related Trump news, Donald Trump retweeted a video about how great he was as a candidate, seemingly unaware that the narration had been stolen from a game (Mass Effect 2), and the narrator in question was not just the villain, but a xenophobic one to boot.)

Moving beyond Panama, here’s an interesting story about how some people at the CIA who are writing a rebuttal (entitled ‘Rebuttal’) to report which said ‘Torture achieved nothing’ just happened to advise the makers of ‘Zero Dark Thirty’. You know, the film which said ‘We got Osama because of torture!’

Now, as we discussed on the podcast, when we covered this story, there’s nothing that unusual about agencies helping out Hollywood. It might seem strange, but it happens more often than many of think. Still, there is something unusual about this case. It’s not strictly conspiratorial, but it fits into a narrative of agencies going well beyond the call of duty to get their message across.

I usually don’t link to pieces at Breitbart, because it’s a little tawdry. However, this piece on where Trump’s support comes from – the alt-right – is interesting and scary. Interesting, because it’s basically the sociology of new iteration of the right-wing, and scary for how the authors going ‘They talk like racists, but really they’re not.’ Has everyone forgotten the moral lesson of Kurt Vonnegut, Jr’s ‘Mother Night’?

If you don’t want to read the Breitbart piece, there’s a good overview of it here.

The Guardian’s Conspiracy craze: why 12 million Americans believe alien lizards rule us is – unfortunately – a story of journalist who wants to show that conspiracy theories are weird, and who get’s some quotes from scholars to back it up. It’s interesting mostly because Olga Oksman approvingly cites Rob Brotherton’s work on how people selectively use evidence to bolster their own case, in order to bolster her case. It seems you can’t write about conspiracy theories without succumbing to pre-ordained theories about conspiracies.

Do you read Sutter Kane? Sorry, do you love the film ‘Citizen Kane’? If you do (or even if you don’t), you are probably aware of the story of Randolph Hurst’s media empire trying to shut the film down. It turns out the conspiracy against Orson Welles was bigger than anyone previously thought.

Finally, let me get political for a moment; have you heard of the newest presidential candidate for the USA, Andy Basiago? His policy platform is conspiratorial to the max, and I think you should give him serious consideration if you happen to be a voting American.

A story about you and me

If you are the kind of person who comes to this website every Monday (NZST) looking for a new blogpost, the last month will have been quite a disappointing time for you (I’m also assuming, apropos of nothing, that these blogposts of mine are the only thing which brings a little joy and wonder to your week). I could say ‘But I’ve been travelling’, and you could say (and why you don’t I can’t quite understand) ‘But Matthew, you’ve been home for over two weeks, and also, you had your laptop with you whilst you were travelling. Oh, and Europe has a lot of internet. So, really?’

Now, understandably, I’d be pretty upset by this point; it’s quite obvious you’ve been surveilling me, and that’s just not very cool. Sure, I mostly tweet with a public account (and no, I’m not telling you about my Little Twitter account where I talk about you all the time), and there’s been Facebook updates and the like, but really, I just can’t be your external validation; you’re asking too much of me.

‘That’s not it, though’, you’ll likely respond, understandably worried that I’m assuming too much about you, your life, your wants and needs. And, truth be told, I’m beginning to think this is more about me than you. Maybe I’m the one who needs your validation; maybe I’m the one whose been worried about getting back into blogging after all this time. Perhaps you’ve gotten used to me not being around? Maybe you don’t need me anymore? Is it possible you’ve moved on, and that you’re not even reading this?

Perhaps what we both need is a safe space to re-engage with one another, a kind of catching up for coffee (not literally, of course… Well, unless that’s not uncomfortable for you. It’s not for me…), where we can chat and not engage in any kind of recriminations. I could tell you how I became an award’s show host in Latvia; I’ve been told my suit was the bee’s knees.

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Or maybe I could ask you if you have a friend who can read Latvian, because then they could tell me what this article really says about me. I’m quite pleased by the fact I appear in the masthead.

Download the PDF file .

Then, after all that, if it turns out you’re still interested, I could give you some audio of the trip. Perhaps you’d like to hear about my time in Riga, or listen in on a talk I gave in Turku. I think you’d like what I said. Well, I hope you will, but I don’t want to burden you.

Maybe after all that, you’ll come back again on Mondays. Maybe after all this, I’ll be back to blogging about the conspiracies, conspiracy theories, and conspiracy theory theories I encounter on a day-by-day basis.

I’d like that. I think you would too.